Memory Market Anomaly: 1b DRAM Costs More Per mm² Than TSMC's N2 Wafer
According to industry data, a square millimeter of 1b DRAM wafer now costs about $0.654, which is 54% more than TSMC's N2 wafer at $0.424. This price inversion reflects a severe DRAM shortage, despite DRAM fabrication being less complex than leading-edge logic. Even older 1z DRAM is priced nearly on par with N2 on a per-area basis.
The pricing inversion stems from a chronic DRAM shortage that has pushed spot prices upward. DRAM Exchange's September 21 listing showed 16Gb DDR5 eTT modules at $24.80, roughly $1.55 per gigabit, underpinning the $1.50 reference price used in the comparison. Even older 1z-generation DRAM, at 0.273 Gb per square millimeter, commands about $0.410 per square millimeter—nearly matching TSMC's N2 node.
Samsung's upcoming B1b process, its first sub-10nm DRAM fabrication approach, will separate memory cells from peripheral circuitry and join them via wafer-to-wafer hybrid bonding. This expensive technique suggests next-generation DRAM will carry substantial premiums. Meanwhile, Chinese manufacturer CXMT is scaling up G4 and G5 production over the next two years, which could eventually add supply to the constrained market.
This pricing anomaly could ripple through consumer electronics and enterprise computing alike. Persistent DRAM shortages may force laptop and server manufacturers to raise prices, as already seen with SO-DIMM costs growing nearly sixfold since July 2025. End users could face higher costs for memory upgrades and new systems. Conversely, memory makers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and CXMT may benefit from elevated margins, potentially accelerating investment in next-generation fabrication. The inversion also highlights how AI-driven demand for memory is reshaping semiconductor economics, with commodity components now rivaling cutting-edge logic in value.